ChainCatcher 消息，针对近期社区有观点认为美股回调 20%会引发比特币暴跌至1万美元，加密分析师 Darkfost 发文分析指出，若比特币跌至 1 万美元，相当于较当前价格将下跌约87%，较历史最高价回撤约92%。历史上，比特币仅在 2011 年出现过超过 92%的最大回撤；2015 年、2019 年、2022 年和 2026 年的最大回撤分别为 82.5%、82.6%、74.4%和 54.2%。
Darkfost 进一步指出，在标普 500 指数回调约 19.53%的情况下，比特币曾于 2018 年下跌约 80%，但 2025 年 4 月标普 500 指数同样回调逾 19%时，比特币仅下跌约 22%，因此将美股回调 20%与比特币跌至 1 万美元直接关联，缺乏充分的历史数据支持。
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