中金:如何看待降息预期走强?

格隆汇
Oct 19
中金研报称,10月国庆假期后,利率衍生品市场隐含的降息预期迅速走强,已经来到了央行前几轮降息前的水平。降息预期走强的一个原因是,9月下旬以来国债收益率较快下行并未触发央行流动性收紧。我们认为,相对于普降7天逆回购利率和LPR,央行通过政策利率“换锚”、保持资金利率中枢在较低位置实现降息的可能性大一些。如果是后一种降息方式,国债收益率进一步下行的空间可能受限,而且这种降息大概率不影响存量贷款利率、新发贷款利率或会有所下行。明年财政政策力度预期仍是国债收益率方向的重要影响因素。

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