金吾财讯 | 泡泡玛特（09992）股价延续近期跌势，股价低见127.7港元，为一年半以来低位，10月以来累计跌幅达16%，截至发稿，报127.9港元，跌1.46%，成交额6.67亿港元。汇丰环球研究表示，目前公司的估值已在很大程度上反映了Labubu系列产品带来的盈利预期重置，然而，销售势头疲软、盈利能见度有限，限制该股估值重估的潜力。尽管公司设有至少20%的股息派发政策（2025年为25%），但在当前估值下，其2026/2027年的隐含股息收益率仅为约1.6–1.9%，缺乏吸引力。该行认为，尽管公司拥有充裕的净现金，但在Labubu系列的销售和盈利动能出现更明确的复苏迹象之前，该行认为其上行空间有限。该行预计公司第三季国内销售差于预期，海外销售趋势仍承压，表明恢复缓慢。基于上述因素，该行下调对该公司2026-2028年纯利预测7-13%。下调泡泡玛特目标价，将其目标价从136.5港元下调9%至124.4港元，维持“持有”评级，反映Labubu需求调整下的盈利能见度有限。
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.