金吾财讯 | 国金证券研究指出，美国战略储备政策有望延续，库存长期留存支撑全球铜价。该机构认为，降低外部供应依赖、保障国防与制造业原料供应，是本轮补库持续推进的战略动因。关税预期和COMEX溢价吸引铜流入美国后，直接收储及公共融资支持可继续承接存量供应，推动部分商业库存转为长期储备，使补库影响超越短期运铜套利。即使精炼铜关税最终未落地，政府仍可通过采购、融资及持有安排，提高既有库存的长期留存比例。长期留存的库存持续占用全球可流通铜，将压缩非美地区可交付供应，使美国累库与国际铜价获得支撑同时出现。风险提示：美国采购和补库进度不及预期风险；关税与原料保障政策调整风险；宏观需求不及预期风险；金融市场波动风险。
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