金吾财讯 | 德意志银行分析认为，美联储主席沃什或在会后新闻发布会释放偏鹰信号，近期经济数据难以打消市场对于通胀粘性的担忧，支撑进一步收紧货币政策的逻辑。德银首席美国经济学家Matthew Luzzetti团队在研报中指出，沃什或将强调美联储仍致力于实现价格稳定，偏紧的金融条件无法替代加息。在CPI数据超预期背景下，通胀数据或将影响沃什的政策判断，该行预计9月核心PCE同比升至3.1%-3.2%，三季度GDP显示经济稳健增长、劳动力市场保持稳定。沃什或认可当前金融条件有所收紧并表示持续监测，市场重点关注其是否仍定性金融条件宽松；同时他会规避7月发布会的相关表述，避免市场质疑美联储的行动意愿。此外发布会或谈及AI对经济的影响：AI长期供给侧红利有助于压低通胀，但短期催生的需求抬升或带来涨价压力。
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