【美债周四重挫 美联储下周加息预期暴跌】联邦基金期货市场目前预计，美联储今年已不会再加息的概率升至了24%。与此前火热CPI数据出炉后的市场预期相比，这堪称是一次剧烈转向。与此同时，债券市场也正经历一场剧烈的重新定价：2年期美债收益率周四重挫18个基点至4.64%。最新定价显示，针对下周的美联储议息会议，市场目前押注加息的概率仅为7%，创下本月新低；12月加息的概率虽仍有76%，但已不再板上钉钉；而1月份的掉期定价也仅体现了27个基点的利率上调幅度——换言之，市场目前认为美联储在未来三次会议上，可能只会加息一次。本轮行情的直接导火索，是AI泡沫疑似破裂的“泄气声”——面对维系庞大算力所需的无底洞式资金规模，投资者的心理防线终于失守。Meta在财报与备案中抛出资本开支需“数千亿美元”的巨额指引，直接吓崩了市场情绪，其股价盘中应声重挫近7%；而管理层试图通过增设无表决权新股来配资的做法，其带来的股权稀释效应也招致了投资者的强烈抵触。
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