Tiger Brokers

小摩：特斯拉Optimus量产节奏偏审慎，对人形机器人供应链转趋选择性

格隆汇
Yesterday
摩根大通发表研报指，特斯拉于2026年第三季业绩会上更新Optimus人形机器人进展，确认已在Fremont开始生产，并表示或可于明年年底前向其他公司付运；惟量产将属渐进式，对外销售前产量指引为1万至2万台，低于市场最乐观预期。 该行在中国国际工业博览会(CIIF)考察亦显示，较实质需求仍多在传感器、3D视觉、数据采集、减速器及灵巧手等生态供应商层面，需求仍属研发、试点及数据采集，而非大规模终端部署。在此背景下，该行对更广泛人形机器人供应链转趋选择性，认为近期由宇树和优必选带动的中国机器人整机商反弹偏情绪驱动，未来一至三个月随预期重置。 恒立液压和三花智控为最佳特斯拉机器人供应链标的，两者均为已确认供应商，且估值具吸引力。该行排序为：恒立液压＝三花智控(评级均为“增持”)＞绿的谐波(评级“增持”)＞奥比中光(评级“增持”)＞汇川技术(评级“中性”)＞优必选(评级“中性”)＞埃斯顿＝宇树科技。

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