分析师:日本2.4%的潜在通胀为更高的终端利率打开可能性

格隆汇
3 hours ago
分析师Eamonn Sheridan表示,日本9月潜在通胀加速,尽管政府提供燃料补贴,商品和服务价格涨幅仍在扩大。这些数据强化了市场对日本央行12月加息的预期,并将注意力转向利率最终可能升至多高。剔除生鲜食品但包含燃料的核心消费者价格同比上涨2.1%,符合预期;但剔除生鲜食品和燃料的指数(日本央行密切关注)从1.9%升至2.4%。分项数据显示价格压力正在扩散。商品通胀从2.6%升至2.8%,服务通胀从1.2%升至1.5%,表明企业开始将更高的工资转嫁给客户。与旷日持久的中东冲突相关的燃料成本上升、日元疲软带来的进口价格上涨,以及人工智能相关的强劲需求,共同削弱了燃料补贴的效果。这让日本央行在下周会议上面对一个熟悉的平衡:通胀终于开始扩大,但有迹象表明劳动力市场和国内需求正在失去部分动能。央行在展望报告中如何描述这一平衡,可能塑造市场对12月之后政策利率的预期。

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