Global Energy Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
2 hours ago

The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1535 ET - U.S. natural gas futures recover much of their early losses that followed further warning in near-term weather outlooks at the weekend, but still settle lower on the day. Friday's commitment of traders reported showed an increase in net-short positions, but driven entirely by a drop in long positions, Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. "While fundamentals remain weak, any short profit-taking or stabilization together with a technically oversold natural gas market may lay the groundwork for a relief rally," he adds. Nymex natural gas for November delivery settles down 1.4% at $2.602/mmBtu after falling briefly below $2.50. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1406 ET - Gold futures settle higher with support from a pullback in oil prices, while shrugging off U.S. dollar gains and an uptick in 2-year yields. Metals picked up after falling to "a psychologically and technically important level," Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital says in a note. "We view the move as constructive for gold, which appears to be presenting another solid entry point." Front-month gold settles up 0.8% at $4,022.30 a troy ounce, and silver edges up 0.7% to $54.108 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0955 ET - The transition by Gulf states from oil and gas dependency to knowledge-based economies has not been fully successful, says Qatar Financial Centre Chief Economist Kamal Naji. During a panel at the World Investment Forum in Doha, he says that the region has seen some success in transitioning but no state can say that it has achieved all of its aims. "Whether or not we can totally wean ourselves off oil and gas is an open question," he adds. (joseph.wilkins@wsj.com)

0933 ET - Oil futures start the week cautiously lower with the market unsure whether the Middle East will see a renewed major conflict between the U.S. and Iran. "At its core, this is a binary outcome: war, or no war, and the market has not resolved which way it falls," Aaron Kildow of Sparta Commodities says in a note. He adds that while stronger flows through the Strait of Hormuz are helping keep a lid on regional differentials "we doubt that Asian buyers are putting cargos into storage, especially at these high price levels." WTI is down 1.2% at $101.99 a barrel and Brent is off 0.8% at $115.81 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0907 ET - Rail freight arriving in Canada from the U.S. continues to rise. Freight traffic from the U.S. increases to 4 million metric tons in August, a seventh straight rise, Statistics Canada data shows. Loadings were up sharply, climbing 14.6% on-year to top the previous five-year average for the month of 3.8 million tons. Overall, Canadian railways transported 32.8 million tons of freight in August, up 8% on-year to also beat the prior five-year average for the month of 30.4 million tons. A rise in loadings of agricultural products more than offset continuing declines in iron ore and coal. Intermodal rail shipments originating in Canada increased 4.7% on-year to 3.3 million tons, a recovery after five consecutive monthly declines. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

0903 ET - U.S. natural gas futures start the week lower, extending losses ahead of this week's November contract expiration amid a milder outlook for weather-driven demand. "With the November contract about to expire the focus is firmly on December, which is now struggling to hold the $3 level," Gary Cunningham of Tradition Energy says in a note. Gas prices are in a range where their impact on electricity prices is negligible, so power prices are firm and even slightly higher in some regions, he adds. "Once the key fuel becomes this cheap, other factors take over and electricity markets hold their ground." Nymex natural gas for November is down 4% at $2.534/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0800 ET - Turkey plans to invest $180 billion in its energy sector by 2035 as it seeks to strengthen energy security and industrial competitiveness, Deputy Trade Minister Mustafa Tuzcu says. Speaking at the World Investment Forum in Doha, Tuzcu says renewable energy accounts for nearly 63% of the country's installed power-generation capacity. Turkey is directing investment toward solar cells, wind-energy systems and other renewable technologies while seeking to diversify energy suppliers, financing sources and industrial partnerships, he says. Rising energy costs and uncertainty surrounding global trade are making it increasingly difficult for developing economies to maintain industrial competitiveness and attract investment, Tuzcu says. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

0628 ET - The dollar is likely to remain supported as energy prices stay elevated and the Federal Reserve is likely to keep a restrictive policy stance on Wednesday, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. "The balance of risks suggests that the dollar can probably hold onto its gains." Energy prices remain at their highs, and a further escalation in the Middle East looks more likely than not, he says. High energy prices should keep the Fed and other central banks "hawkish" in favor of tight monetary policy, he says. ING expects the Fed to leave rates on hold Wednesday but to raise rates in December. The DXY dollar index trades steady at 101.826.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0451 ET - Escalating attacks by Yemen's Houthi militants against Saudi Arabia are driving up tanker freight rates, adding to already tight shipping capacity in the Persian Gulf, analysts at Rystad Energy say. Continued attacks on vessels in the Red Sea have forced Saudi crude shipments onto longer routes, primarily through the Suez Canal and around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing transportation costs and delivery times. Freight rates for shipments from Saudi Arabia's Yanbu to China's Ningbo via these routes rose to $48 a barrel as of Oct. 22, from $24 in early September, according to Rystad. The increase is widening the gap between Saudi export prices and delivered costs in Asia, squeezing Saudi Aramco's netbacks--the revenue it retains after transportation costs--the analysts say. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0445 ET - Goldman Sachs expects refined-product supply constraints to persist into 2027 as deferred refinery maintenance raises the risk of further disruptions, particularly in Asia, where heavier maintenance in the second quarter could curb diesel and jet fuel exports. In the near term, refined-product markets face mounting pressure from Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, uncertainty over potential U.S. diesel export restrictions and rising crude prices. Meanwhile, record crude freight costs are squeezing refinery margins and reducing the availability of product tankers. Goldman analysts say inventories remain low across major trading hubs: in Asia, Chinese gasoline and diesel stocks have fallen 8% and 11%, respectively, from a year earlier, while Singapore's middle-distillate inventories are down 44%. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0429 ET - European stock indexes largely gain at the open as autos and healthcare stocks strengthen. The continent-wide Stoxx 600 moves 0.3% up. London's FTSE 100 rises 0.3% as miners trade higher, while AI-linked Computacenter jumps 6.75%. The German DAX gains 0.4% as Bayer lifts 2.75%, while autos advance across the index--Volkswagen rises 1.3%, while BMW adds 1.4%. In Paris, the CAC 40 rises 0.5%, led by Jeep-owner Stellantis. Hermes gains 2.4%. Spain's IBEX 35 is an outlier, falling 0.6% as Brazil-exposed stocks fall sharply. Santander drops over 5%. Italy's FTSE MIB rises 0.55%. The Dutch AEX nudges down 0.15%. ASML drops for technical reasons--shares bought today won't pay out a dividend, prompting the stock to fall 0.5%. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)

0430 ET - Oil prices fall more than 1% in early European trading as traders weigh diplomatic efforts to end the Iran war against renewed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. The December Brent crude contract, which expires on Friday, falls 1.4% to $115.04 a barrel, while the January contract is down 1.4% to $110.15 a barrel. WTI futures slide 1.9% to $101.27 a barrel. Middle Eastern mediators have been seeking to revive negotiations between Washington and Tehran, though regional tensions remain elevated, with a Saudi-led coalition saying Monday that it intercepted a ballistic missile launched by the Houthis toward Riyadh. Meanwhile, President Trump told Fox News on Sunday that it is getting to be decision time on whether he will make a deal with Tehran or "finish it off."

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